Analisis Peramalan Penjualan Barang pada Apotek (Klinik Pratama Bunda Medical Centre (BMC))

Abstract

Abstract Pratama Bunda Medical Centre (BMC) clinic is one of pharmacies in Pekanbaru that serves medication and drug sales. Pratama Bunda Medical Centre (BMC) has implemented a pharmaceutical application, so that all buying and selling activities are recorded in the system. Although it has implemented pharmaceutical applications, but in determining the sales estimates, the Pratama Bunda Medical Centre (BMC) clinic still uses estimates. This results in frequent occurence of drug accumulation which becomes expired and emptiness of the stock that causes loss of potential benefits that should be obtained. Based on the problems, a web-based information system will be built to assist in classifying drugs based on their level of needs using Always Better Control (ABC) analysis and for forecasting sales for the upcoming month will be using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method. Based on blackbox testing the result shows that the system is 100% running properly. Based on whitebox testing, the percentage of the success of the program code is 100%. Based on the result of testing the accuracy of the forecasting method produced that forecasting using alpha 0,1 has the smallest MAD value which mean the accuracy of the forecasting will be much better. Keywords: Forecasting, Analysis Always Better Control (ABC), Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Blackbox, Whitebox