Implementation of Forecasting in Determining Sales of Goods at Wiwi Stores Using the Holts Method
AbstractThe Wiwi shop, which is located on Jalan Tanjung Jati Pekanbaru, is one of the MSME businesses that sells daily necessities such as oil, sugar, salt, etc. The storage of sales transactions at this Wiwi store is still manual to determine the inventory of goods every month, still using estimates. Then the problem arises in the difficulty of determining the inventory of goods so that there is an excess and shortage of inventory that makes a loss for the shop owner. From these problems, an application will be built by implementing forecasting or forecasting an application using the Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP) programming language and MySQL as a database to process sales data in determining the amount of inventory that must be provided. The forecasting method used is the Holts method. The results of forecasting the amount of inventory from this method will be tested using the Mean Square Error (MSE) method to get an error from the method, so that it can be taken into consideration for the Wiwi store in providing supplies. Based on the results of testing with black box testing, the system functions run 100% successfully as expected. Testing the Holts method by using the Mean Square Error showed that the Holts method with low variation got the number of recommendations, namely 682 and the Holts method with variations got the number of recommendations, namely 365. So from these results it was found that the low variation value is more recommended.
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